Alongside Michigan and Wisconsin, Pennsylvania is likely to be a swing state in 2020. Why? We’ll elaborate on our opinion below.
Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin voted Republican for the first time in a quarter of a century in 2016. Without a doubt, the Democratic Party is trying to win them back. As 4 years isn’t long enough to expect a major change, it’s likely that most of the recent swing states will be swing states again next year. We don’t anticipate much of a difference in 2020 unless the Democrats pick a really bad candidate or Donald Trump turns out to be a very bad or good president.
Other than that, there have been some notable switches recently. Below are some more details.
Texas and the Midwest
Normally, Texas is firmly Republican, but Trump significantly underperformed past candidates of his party in the Lone Star state in 2016. Hillary Clinton won in Minnesota, but not as markedly as her forerunner Obama. If you take the growing dissatisfaction with the Democrats in the Midwest into account, you’ll see many of these states decisively moving to the swing category.
Trump won Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2016, and both parties will fight hard for votes in those states. Trump did better than previous Republican candidates in Ohio and Iowa, so these states will probably vote R again. It was an easy win for him in Missouri and Indiana.
Pacific Coast and Southwest
Pacific Coast states will remain Democratic. Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado are traditional swing states that will probably vote Democratic again, just as they have in the last three presidential elections. Utah might vote D as Trump did very poorly there.
Arizona might be a swing state because Republican performance has been deteriorating there – slowly, but steadily.
Normally, Florida and North Carolina are swing states. Virginia has voted D in the last three elections, so we don’t expect any changes there.
That’s about it – hope we live to see the outcome in 2020! It’s highly likely that PA will swing.